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金刻羽:为什么说1930年代的经济衰亡能够重演?

作者|金刻羽(哈佛经济学博士、伦敦政治经济学院经济学终身教授)

现在,世界正面临着相通1930年代经济衰亡的前景,也许是2009年经济大没落的几倍。对大无数人来说,这能够是吾们一生中经历的最大的经济事件。

这场通走病可与1918年进攻西班牙的大流感相挑并论,那场流感那时感染了西班牙1/4的人口,并且有5000万人物化亡。仅仅在两个月前,大无数人还认为这场新冠病毒只是一栽中国形象,或至众发生在亚洲,就像SARS,吾们异国意料到它会活着界其异国家有爆炸式的传播。与1918年相比,当代医学和科技得到了提高,但世界周围内的有关也越来越厉密,每天有1200万人次经过乘坐飞机在各个国家之间起伏。

在现在的情况下,吾们面对的不是像2009年的经济没落时那样,美国的产出消极5%,而是美国和全球的产出消极40%的能够性。这一次,不是信贷缩短导致的银走体系的瘫痪,消耗乏力蔓延到实体经济。现在,实体经济的很大一片面十足陷入凝滞,这栽影响将会进入金融编制,并且重新回来第二次冲击实体经济。

在2008年经济大没落的高峰时期,美国每个月亏损80万个做事岗位,现在的境况将是每周亏损数百万个做事岗位。政策制定者在美国赋闲率达到10%时缩头缩脑,现在他们在商议的赋闲率踯躅在30%旁边。在典型的经济没落中,企业解雇工人是由于社会匮乏消耗。现在,企业的做法直接导致大周围赋闲,由于它们不克也不该该让人们重返做事岗位。然后,当陷入逆境的家庭和企业减少开支时,就会展现第二轮的裁员潮。

吾们拿餐饮业举例,在美国,这是个周围挨近一万亿美元的走业。还异国考虑到航空、旅走、娱笑、哺育和一些必须面迎面的服务。服务业约占到集体GDP的80%,那么,吾们很容易就能清新,为何40%的产出会一夜挥发。和2008年最大的区别在于,现在很众基础面卓异的企业也会破产,由于他们异国营业可做。在2008年金融危险中,美国一些大银走濒临违约,当局那时脱手营救了银走。现在,当局必要出面营救统统——包括她的人民、中幼企业、银走和金融机构。

与整个经济没落时期相比,全球主要经济体的当局准许的一揽子声援周围已经大得众了。美联储已经准许无限购买美国债券,美国财政部经过了美国当代历史上最大周围的2万亿美元经济刺激计划。历史上平素幼器的欧央走已经准许购买约1万亿欧元的欧洲债券。其口号是:竭尽辛勤。他们声称本身正在面临二战以来最大的危险!

不过人们很容易理解,尽管货币政策逆答敏捷且周围重大,但其成果是有限的。因为是云云的:2007年凝结了开销和信贷,消耗者和企业义务不首重新贷款。所以,旨在降矮利率和挑供信贷的货币政策能够敏捷协助重启借贷和开销。然而,当由于社会成员产生距离,企业无法不休营业,或是由于阻隔措施节制了人们平常做事,那么货币政策就很难使经济运动恢复平常。

吾们是否会面临经济衰亡或没落,要望新冠病毒在全球的传播会不息众长时间。倘若所有国家都能够采取像中国云云厉肃的措施,或者甚至是采取像新添坡、韩国和日本这些国家云云较为温暖但有效的措施,吾都不会如此不安。但西方国家不像亚洲国家。最先,他们异国经历过SARS的经验,逆答迟钝,很晚才认识到题目的主要性。其次,仅仅在几周的强制阻隔,甚至只是请求避免荟萃之后,就已经仇声载道。请仔细:这甚至还不是阻隔,这只是避免荟萃。英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)宣布采取阻隔措施的几天后,他父亲却说往酒吧喝酒是一栽“必要运动”,有必要的时候他肯定会往。吾认识的一对住在豪华的农乡下园的70众岁高龄的英国夫妇通知吾,倘若被请求再阻隔一个月,他们会发疯的。吾之前在纽约的同学说,纽约人不能够在家里待太久,他们情愿感染这栽病。而且最有能够发生的事情是——他们受够了,最后会发展成为群体免疫力。

所以,不光仅是吾们的文化、政治制度、公共设施差别,吾们的人民也是差别的。与西方人相比,东亚人是一个更遵命的群体,就像与意大利人相比德国人也是云云。与欧洲人相比,美国人必要的社会娱笑运动更少。上周末巴黎天气很益,法国人不愿错过离家往海滩的机会。 但是不管是美国人照样欧洲人——他们都厌倦被约束的感觉。他们对技术监视也持疑心态度,即使危及他们的生命也是如此。

上述的所有意味着差异国家在答对这一通走病时,将采取截然差别的手段。大无数工业化国家采取的是缓解措施,推迟高峰期的到来,而不是采取极端措施往遏制病毒。但这也将意味着他们延宕了做事和经济的恢复。在中国,吾们停留了所有社会运动大约一个月旁边,企业正在恢复生机,很众营业已经十足恢复,但西方经济不会如此。遵命他们的策略,经济恢复少则必要6个月,甚至更久。倘若展现二波感染的爆发,则能够必要18个月,或者直到治疗手段和疫苗的展现才能恢复平常。倘若世界主要经济体展现12-18个月的经济凝滞,吾们将面临的是比大衰亡更主要的挑衅。

所以,吾们不克根据中国的抗疫经验来分析世界经济的前景。尽管国内已经异国众少新实在诊病例,但社会走为已经发生了根本性的转折。恢复平常做事后,吾们照样必要不都雅察是否会展现第二波感染,倘若异国,吾会对中国的经济恢复更添笑不都雅。一旦西方国家的感染率最先消极,股票市场就会恢复平常。到现在为止,6万亿美元的股票市值已经挥发,行业动态但最糟糕的时刻还异国到来。

中国国内的经济周围足以防止吾们的产出展现大幅消极。但是,当吾们的经济恢复平常时,世界其他地区将陷入逆境。不光是出于战略益处,而且照样道德请求,这都是吾们在这个世纪对世界各国施以援手的机会。在国际社会中如此难以竖立的信任,将经过吾们对人道主义声援诚信而实际的践走来实现。

附英文原文:

Why are we facing a 1930's Economic Depression?

The world is currently facing the prospects of an Economic depression akin to that of the 1930’s, perhaps 10 times the size of the Great recession of 2009. For most of us, it will be the biggest economic event of our lifetime.

The pandemic that has attacked us is comparable to the 1918 Spanish flu, which infected about 1/4 of the population and where 50 million people had died. Only two months ago, most of us believed that the coronavirus will be a Chinese phenomenon, or at most an Asian phenomenon, like SARS. Little did we expect that it will explode in the rest of the world. Compared to 1918, modern medicine and technology has advanced, but we also have vastly greater interconnections around the world, with 12 million people flying each day .

What we are potentially facing is not a 5% drop in U.S. output, as was the case of the Great Recession in 2009, but a 40% drop in U.S. output and economies around the world. This time around, it is not a paralysis of the banking system where credit is squeezed, and lack of spending spills over to the real economy. Today, it is that a large part of the real economy will be in a complete stall, which will in turn break the financial system, and then come back to affect the real economy a second time round.

During the height of the Great Recession of 2008, the U.S. economy was losing 800,000 jobs per month. Today, it is losing millions of jobs per week. Policymakers balked at a peak of 10 % unemployment rate in the U.S.; today, they are talking about a number that hovers around a 30% unemployment rate. In a typical recession, businesses lay off workers because consumers do not spend enough. Today, businesses destroys employment because they cannot and should not bring people back to work. And then----when distressed families and businesses cut back on spending, there is a second round of layoffs.

Take the restaurant sector alone. In the U.S., it is a trillion dollar sector. This does not take into account air travel, tourism, entertainment, education, and face to face services. The service sector as a whole is about 80% of GDP. It is easy to see how a 40% evaporation of output can occur in no time. The main difference is that fundamentally sound businesses today may go bankrupt because there is no business. In 2008, a few major banks were on the verge of default. Today, the government has to come out and rescue its people, its businesses large and small, and its banks.

The financial assistance packages that major governments around the world are promising are already on a much larger scale than during the whole of the Great Recession. The Fed has already promised to buy US bonds of `infinity and more’. The Treasury is currently trying to pass a 2 trillion dollar fiscal stimulus, which is the largest fiscal stimulus package in modern U.S. history. The European central bank, which been historically stingy, has pledged to buy about 1 trillion euros worth of European debt. Its motto is : do whatever it takes. They have claimed that they are facing the biggest crisis since World War II!

But it is easy to understand why monetary policy will be limited in its efficacy despite their rapid response and scale. The reason is that in 2007, it was spending and credit that was frozen. Consumers and businesses cannot afford to replay loans or get new ones. So monetary policy aimed at cutting interest rates and making credit available can help jumpstart borrowing and spending. But when businesses are effectively shut down because of social distancing, because businesses cannot get components, or because quarantines limits people’s ability to work, it is not monetary policy that can jumpstart economic activity.

I would not be so concerned if all countries can take as draconian measures as our country has taken, or even the more moderate but effective measures that Singapore, Korea and Japan have adopted. But the Western countries are not like Asian countries. First of all, they have not had the experience of SARs, and are slow to react and to recognize the severity of the problem. Second, the people are already complaining of being quarantined after only a few weeks or in many cases a few days of mandatory social distancing. Attention: it is not even quarantine---it is social distancing. Days after the UK prime minister Boris Johnson announced social distancing measures, his father had said suggested that going to a pub may be a `necessity’, and that he would go anyway. My British friends over 70 years old who are staying at luxurious countryside estate have told me that they will go crazy if they are required stay there for one more month. My former classmates in New York said that there is no way that New Yorkers can be kept in their homes for too long. They’d rather get the disease. And---what is most likely going to happen is that they will be fed up, and everyone will end up developing herd immunity.

Thus, it is not only that our culture, political systems, public infrastructure are different. Our people are different. Compared to Westerners, East Asians are a more compliant group. So are the Germans—compared to the Italians. Compared to Europeans, Americans crave and need less socialization. Last weekend saw good weather for Paris, and the Frenchmen could not miss the opportunity to leave their homes for the beach. But from Americans to Europeans--virtually all of them hate perceived notions of suppression. They are also skeptical of technological surveillance even if it is their lives that are at stake.

All of this means that different countries will take very different approaches in fighting the epidemic. Most industrialized countries have taken the approach of mitigation, delaying the peak, rather than radical measures to contain the virus. But that would mean that they delay the resumption of work and the economy. In China, we stopped all activities for about a month or so, and businesses are springing back to life, with much of the operations fully recovered. That would not be the case for Western economies. With their strategy, it will take at least 6 months for the economy to go back to normal, if not longer. If there is a second wave of infections, then it may take 18 months, or whenever a cure and a vaccine is available. If we are facing a 12-18 month halt in economic activities in major economies around the world, we will be facing a challenge even greater than the Great Depression.

Thus, we cannot analyse the prospects of the world economy based on our own experience. Even though there are barely any more new cases arising inside China, social behaviour has fundamentally altered. We will still need to see if a resumption of work can spark off a second wave of infection. If not, I would be more optimistic of China's economic recovery. As soon as we see the infection rates starting to decline in Western countries, the stock market will start to come back. So far, 6 trillion dollars of stock market value has already been wiped out and we have yet to see the worst.

The size of our domestic economy is sufficient to prevent a major decline in our output. But the rest of the world will be tanking as we come back to life. It is an opportunity of the century for us to help the rest of the world, not only out of strategic interests, but also out of a moral imperative. The trust that has been so difficult to build in the international community will come about through our genuine and practical efforts of humanitarian assistance.

【保举】重磅通知!百位经济学家预判2020经济和投资趋势

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posted @ 20-03-27 08:47  作者:admin  阅读量:

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